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Tottenham vs. Arsenal prediction, betting tips & odds for north London derby


The north London derby needs no added spice, and yet there’s still an extra twinge of tension as Arsenal’s run-in amidst the Premier League title race faces its most difficult challenge with a visit to Tottenham on Sunday.

Arsenal reside three points clear at the top of the Premier League table, but do not control their own destiny thanks to having played a game more than second-place Liverpool and two more than third-place Man City who sit four points adrift.

The cruel week in early April saw the Gunners crash out of the Champions League and slip in the domestic title race in back-to-back matches, but they have recovered nicely, topping Wolves last weekend before a midweek dismantling of Chelsea by a lopsided 5-0 scoreline which renewed the positive vibes around Mikel Arteta’s side.

With a European place of their own still to play for, Tottenham would love nothing more than to ruin the title hunt for their hated rivals and take a big step towards late-season Champions League qualification in the process. Spurs sit fifth in the table, six points back of Aston Villa for the last UCL spot, but holding two games in hand, meaning it’s anybody’s call who will snatch that final place.

Arsenal’s exit from the Champions League in the quarterfinals, alongside Man City, actually dented Spurs’ chances of making next year’s competition, as England lost its grip on a fifth qualifying spot, so they will look to make the Gunners pay for forcing them to do it the hard way.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Tottenham vs Arsenal and bet Premier League matches

Regardless of where either side is in the larger context of their season, this match almost always delivers. Sure, there’s the chance of a big-game letdown from a neutral perspective, but this fixture usually provides the bite billed pre-match.

The hallmark of Ange Postecoglou’s managerial mantra is play their way to a fault — that was evident in last weekend’s 4-0 pasting by Newcastle, as Spurs were continually punished on the counter as they remained open going forward. Arsenal are capable of beating Spurs in this manner as well, but Tottenham know they need max points from this match if they are to keep hold of their own destiny in the Champions League hunt, so they will go for it, to their own demise.

This is an extremely high bar to clear, even considering the 5-0 thrashing of Chelsea last time out, but if there’s any opponent Arsenal can put three past it’s Spurs. Tottenham have coughed up over 2.0 xG in three of their last five league games, including against Fulham and Nottingham Forest.

Arsenal don’t always present the high-flying attacking onslaught they unveiled against Chelsea, but they have hit for three against Spurs twice in their last five meetings, and also won 2-0 against an Antonio Conte-led Spurs side in their last visit to this venue, a benchmark they should be able to top in a much more open affair.

Arsenal’s Brazilian winger has been a streaky player throughout his career, and he’s showing signs of a return to form after a rough run through the early part of this month that saw him lose his starting place. In the last two league games, Martinelli has generated a combined four quality opportunities in just 32 minutes off the bench, following a run of four straight substitute appearances where he combined for just one shot attempt.

Additionally, while he missed the reverse fixture earlier this year due to injury, Martinelli has been excellent from a creative standpoint in his last two north London derby appearances, assisting a goal in the 3-1 home win last season before creating four chances worth 0.84 xA in the 2-0 victory last time they were at this venue.

With Leandro Trossard starting on the left midweek against Chelsea, it’s likely that Mikel Arteta turns back to Martinelli here to fully rotate the squad, and the Brazilian should play a role in springing the dangerous Arsenal counter-attack and taking advantage of the space he’s afforded against a Tottenham side that often leaves itself open.

Given the enormity of this rivalry match, U.S. broadcast rights-holder NBC Sports has decided to televise this match on USA Network, which can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users. There is also a Spanish-language broadcast available on Telemundo, which can also be found on Fubo.

In Canada, Fubo is the exclusive broadcast rights-holder for the Premier League this season, with every match from August to May streaming live on the platform. Fubo also hold the exclusive broadcast rights to Serie A games in Canada, while other leagues like MLS, Bundesliga, and La Liga can be found throughout the season as well.

This marquee Premier League match on Sunday will be broadcast domestically in the UK on Sky Sports platforms.

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