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Roma vs. Bayer Leverkusen prediction, betting tips & odds for Europa League


With the Bundesliga title long in hand, Bayer Leverkusen gun for a famous double via an unprecedented unbeaten season as they visit Italian side Roma in the Europa League semifinals on Thursday.

Xabi Alonso’s side has defied logic this season, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat on countless occasions this season. In 2024 alone, Bayer Leverkusen have scored an enormous 14 goals from the 80th minute on that have either tied or taken the lead.

It has been a total team effort in that endeavor, as those 14 goals have been scored by 10 individuals, with only the heroics of Patrik Schick coming on multiple occasions. Yet at some point, Leverkusen will need to avoid playing with fire so often if they wish to secure the first fully unbeaten season in European top flight history.

Unlike Leverkusen, Roma do not have the luxury of putting their remaining league fixtures aside to focus fully on Europe, sitting fifth in the Serie A table and teetering on the precipice of European qualification. Italy may obtain an additional Champions League qualifying place next season, so keeping hold of that position will be critical across the final four games of the domestic season.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen and bet Europa League matches

Betting against Bayer Leverkusen, who seemingly have destiny on their side this season, would come with gargantuan risk, and thus the Italian hosts sit as solid underdogs for a European semifinal. Still, Leverkusen do not appear as impenetrable as they have for much of the season, needing to wrestle themselves to safety late in games to secure draws.

As such, Roma should manage to keep a lid on the match, something they’re quite adept at. Across their Europa League campaign, Roma have conceded over one goal just once, in their group stage road trip to Slavia Prague. Bayer Leverkusen will be happy to oblige and leave the two-legged matchup to be decided at home next week.

Do we really need to explain these? Bayer Leverkusen have been utterly phenomenal not just after halftime this season, but in the final 15 minutes of matches.

If we look at just the Europa League knockout stage, Leverkusen have trailed at halftime in both their road matches, and were level at the break in one of their two home games. After halftime, however, they’ve out-scored opponents 7-3 and have pulled themselves from the brink on numerous occasions. With the expectation that they should dominate the final stages of the match, we can also play that alongside an understanding that overall, things shouldn’t get too out of hand.

While selecting a goal provider for Bayer Leverkusen is an impossible task given how many players can crop up in big moments, Roma are a bit more predictable. Argentine playmaker Paulo Dybala is in great form, and remains the team’s most consistent threat in the attacking third.

Dybala’s most steady contributions are on the provider end of chances, as he leads the club in expected assists for Serie A matches this season and has delivered 10 key passes over their last four games, worth a combined 1.43 xA and collecting two assists. He also scored a goal in the 2-2 draw with Napoli over the weekend, and has six shots distributed evenly over his last three league games, indicating he can also prove dangerous while finishing chances as well.

It took the Argentine a while to get going in Europe thanks to a smattering of injuries, but he has provided a goal contribution in each of their last three Europa League games, including a goal and assist across the two quarterfinal legs against AC Milan. He should be the one to help Roma match Leverkusen’s attacking threat.

This Europa League semifinal first leg will be televised in the United States on CBS Sports Network, which can be found streaming on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users. It can also be streamed on Paramount+ where every match of this year’s Champions League and Europa League tournaments can be accessed.

In the UK, this match will be televised on TNT Sports 2, with streaming available on the company’s dedicated platform discovery+. In Canada, the official rights-holder of UEFA club competitions is DAZN.

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