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Barcelona vs. Girona prediction, betting tips & odds for La Liga match


Newly promoted to La Liga just two years ago, Girona could do the unthinkable on Saturday: they could put themselves ahead of Barcelona in the league standings with just four matches left in the season.

Considered an afterthought to their Catalonia neighbors Barcelona for decades, Girona’s meteoric rise to prominence could reach a massive benchmark as they travel to Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium this weekend to take on Barcelona down the stretch of the Spanish top flight season.

Girona sit third in the table on 71 points, just two back of Barcelona with five matches to go. They are seven above fourth-placed Atletico Madrid, and 12 points clear of Athletic Club in fifth, meaning a Champions League place for next season is essentially confirmed. It’s just about final positioning at this point, and a spot above Barcelona would be a picture-perfect ending to a sensational campaign beyond their wildest dreams.

Barcelona are reeling from a rocky April, having been bounced from the Champions League quarterfinals, losing a controversial El Clasico, and needing a red card to the Valencia goalkeeper to avoid another embarrassing league result. Xavi announced he was staying in the middle of it all, which might serve as a harsh microcosm of his tenure thus far.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Barcelona vs Girona and bet La Liga matches

There is every single indication that Girona can achieve a result in this match, and that Barcelona’s apparent return to normalcy last time out was simply a blip in an otherwise downward trajectory.

Girona won at Barca 4-2 in the reverse fixture in a match that displayed every single one of Barcelona’s weaknesses and every single one of Girona’s strengths. Xavi’s side proved mentally weak on that day, as Artem Dovbyk scored the opener and Girona’s super-sub Cristhian Stuani finished it off deep into stoppage time.

Last time out, Barcelona punished Valencia for goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili’s huge error which left the visitors a man down in Catalonia for the entire second half. Yet before that, while the match was even, it was Valencia who were the better side. Robert Lewandowski scored a hat-trick against 10 men, but he has been putrid for much of the season — if Barcelona can’t find consistent goal scorers outside of the aging Polish international, they’ll be unable to keep up with the prolific Girona front line.

Barcelona seem to think Frenkie de Jong is expendable, but on both sides of the ball, the Catalan giants are worse-off without the Dutch international. Their buildup is stunted, but their defensive capabilities are also weakened, largely because his influence in possession is so strong, that without his distribution and ball control, they are far more prone to counter-attacking play, which is where Girona excel.

Amongst European midfielders this season, De Jong ranks in the top two percentiles for pass completion, progressive passes, and progressive carries, while also ranking in the 66th percentile for tackles per game, which is significant from a non-No. 6 player.

Between the combination of Aleix Garcia’s passing, Eric Garcia’s progression, and Savio’s on-ball wizardry, Girona should rip this Barcelona midfield to shreds.

A drought for Girona’s breakout goal scorer through January and February threatened to derail not just his season but the club’s with it. Yet 23-year-old Ukrainian striker Artem Dovbyk has exploded back onto the scene in a massive way, with five goals in his last four league games, lifting Girona back into the conversation for a top spot in the La Liga table.

It’s not that Dovbyk was struggling in front of goal, he was simply starved for chances. From the start of 2024 through the 1-0 defeat to Mallorca in early March, Dovbyk had just three goals on 10 shots worth 2.06 xG across 10 league games — remove his hat-trick against Sevilla from that equation, and he put together zero goals on seven shots worth 1.32 xG.

In the six games since, he has racked up 19 shots worth 6.37 xG, scoring five goals in the process. His team are finding him in the attacking third once again, and it’s proving massively beneficial. Ronald Araujo has been exceedingly mistake-prone over the last few weeks, but against Valencia last time out it was young Pau Cubarsi who was brought off at halftime instead, threatening to shatter the young star’s confidence. There will be chances here, and he should make good on those opportunities. 

In the United States, this La Liga match will be televised in Spanish on ESPN Deportes, which can be accessed on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users. The match can also be found on ESPN+, where every single match of the Spanish top flight season is accessible under one roof.

In the UK, this match will be televised on Premier Sports 1, formerly Viaplay Sports, as well as ITV 4, with streaming on the dedicated platforms for both channels. In Canada, this game will be accessible only on TSN’s dedicated streaming platform TSN+.

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