Two European blue bloods clash looking to secure a spot at Wembley as Real Madrid host Bayern Munich in the second leg of their Champions League semifinal matchup on Wednesday.
The aggregate score is all square after an exhilarating first leg in Bavaria last week that finished in a 2-2 draw. It played out in predictable fashion as the two sides put forth performances typical of their recent makeup, with Bayern Munich dominating possession and Real Madrid looking to absorb the pressure and punish the opponent for any mistakes.
Both sides earned penalties without much referee controversy, and there is everything to play for now across these 90 minutes at the Bernabeu.
A subtext across the lead-up to this match has been Bayern Munich’s fruitless coaching search, with Thomas Tuchel set to depart at the end of the season, but for now Tuchel has a job to do before he bids the German giants farewell.
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With a level aggregate scoreline and home field advantage, Real Madrid are considered significant favourites to advance to the Champions League final, with visitors Bayern Munich given a slim chance to move on.
There’s also an expectation that goals will be scored, with four being bagged in the first leg, although the bar isn’t quite as high as the massively inflated total for the other semifinal second leg between PSG and Borussia Dortmund.
Everything in this match will come down to finishing, one way or another, which makes it very difficult to predict, as finishing is the most fickle part of this sport in small sample sizes like a 90-minute match.
Bayern will have the majority of the attacking possession and should collect solid volume in front of goal, while Real Madrid will look to punish them for mistakes in and out of possession. That much is likely regardless, but how each side handles their chances will determine the outcome.
To that end, there does appear to be value on Bayern Munich here as nearly 3/1 underdogs, as volume can often beget goals on any given night, while relying on finishing as Real Madrid do could be a recipe for disaster if they fail to meet the necessary standards. And yet, under the bright lights of Europe, Madrid so often meet and even exceed those standards — Vinicius Jr is the best finisher by goals-xG differential (+1.48 goals-xG) remaining in the competition, and Rodrygo should be up there but has been the victim of great goalkeeping (5 goals on 6.54 xGOT).
Sprinkle in Jude Bellingham’s clutch gene (six of his eight Champions League goal contributions have either tied the match or taken the lead), and Madrid are the pick here even as Bayern should rack up a solid base of chances on net and maybe even profit on a few.
Defender Matthijs de Ligt and Dayot Upamecano are both struggling for fitness after missing the first leg, and their status for this match is unclear. Upamecano played 45 minutes off the bench in the defeat to Stuttgart, while De Ligt was not available due to injury. After only being fit for a role off the bench in the first leg, Serge Gnabry started against Stuttgart and logged 64 minutes, indicating he could make the XI for this match. Kingsley Coman is the only confirmed absentee as the French international could miss out on this summer’s European Championship due to a groin injury.
Carlo Ancelotti has no squad concerns to work around with Dani Carvajal returning from a yellow card suspension in the first leg to take part here. Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham both came off the bench over the weekend against Cadiz, now rested for the Champions League bout. Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois finally returned over the weekend to make his first start since an ACL tear in August, and now Ancelotti has a decision to make after Andriy Lunin was strong in Courtois’s absence. Should he stick with the man who got them to this spot, or reinstall Courtois who is thought to be the best goalkeeper in the world but has little form to lean on?
There’s a massive hole in the betting market for this game — for some reason, Real Madrid are favoured to take significantly more shots than Bayern Munich, almost surely based solely on the idea that Madrid are at home. Yet there’s nothing to suggest they will pummel the Bayern net in the way the market is expecting.
In the first leg, it felt as if Bayern’s build-up was largely smothered by a solid Real Madrid shape, and even then they won the shot count 14-10, putting five of their efforts on target. Overall, Bayern have averaged 14.6 shots per game in the Champions League, and 12.8 on the road.
Bayern’s accuracy in this competition has wavered at times this year, but they are in their best attacking form of 2024 (at the European level, anyways, as the league season has long been an afterthought) and will be sure to test which ever goalkeeper suits up for Madrid. Thibaut Courtois made two saves against lowly Cadiz over the weekend in a simple shutout victory, so expecting either he or Lunin — who has proven vital repeatedly in the Champions League this year — to be worked twice as much here is more than reasonable.
As was the case in the first match, nobody has better value to score than Real Madrid forward Rodrygo, who has flown under the radar from a betting perspective thanks to the attention on Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham. Vinicius was the star in the first leg, scoring both goals for his side, but Rodrygo remained active, getting two shots off (both blocked) while winning the penalty for Madrid’s second goal.
Bellingham hasn’t scored a Champions League goal in the knockout stage this year, being moved a bit deeper by Carlo Ancelotti to allow the Madrid forwards to feature their pace at the head of the attack, and Vinicius Jr has never scored goals in consecutive Champions League knockout games.
Madrid will need Rodrygo in front of goal in this match. He has five goals in Europe this season, but could have even more, having logged 6.54 xGOT, suggesting he’s been pegged back by quality goalkeeping. Do Bayern Munich have quality goalkeeping? They do not — Manuel Neuer has posted a -3.9 goals-xGOTA differential in the Bundesliga this season, and while that number is in the positive for Champions League play, it’s only slightly so through the knockout stages.
While the removal of the away goals rule has seen teams push forward more often knowing they don’t need to grind games out as much, there’s still a clear skew for both these clubs after halftime, where desperation grows and European champions are crowned.
That was the case for Bayern against Arsenal, as they contested their second leg in Bavaria in a cagey manner before halftime before the Germans let loose after the break. Real Madrid took an early lead in their most recent second leg against Man City, which led to them hanging on for dear life as Pep Guardiola’s side pummeled them repeatedly searching fruitlessly for an equaliser.
In fact, Real Madrid have only conceded a single first-half goal through five Champions League knockout games this season, falling to Bernardo Silva in the second minute of their quarterfinal first leg. Otherwise, they’ve pitched a complete first-half shutout. Expect them to frustrate Bayern Munich again here before the break, as they did in the first leg.
Jude Bellingham hasn’t scored a goal in the Champions League knockout stage this year, nor has he scored against Bayern Munich in his entire career for both Dortmund and Madrid, but with the Ballon d’Or already likely his, scoring a Champions League semifinal winner would be a sensational way to put both hands on the trophy and push Real Madrid into the final at Wembley.
Of Bellingham’s 22 goals this season, five have come in the final 15 minutes of regulation this year, with four of those in the final 10 minutes plus stoppage time, including a 94th minute winner against Union Berlin in the group stage. Zooming out a bit, 15 of his 22 goals have come after halftime.
Incredibly, Bellingham was subbed out in the 75th minute of the first leg having failed to register a shot. But After a drought through February and March, Bellingham has scored in two consecutive league games, including over the weekend when he struck with his second touch after coming off the bench against Cadiz. He may be tiring a bit at the end of a long season, but if the game is in the balance, he has been called upon countless times before and delivered.
This enormous Champions League semifinal second leg between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich from the Bernabeu will be broadcast in the United States on CBS, with a Spanish-language broadcast available on both TUDN and Univision. The English and Spanish broadcasts are both available to stream on Fubo, which is offering a free trial for new users, while there is also streaming available on CBS’s platform Paramount+.
In the UK, this game will be broadcast on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on discovery+. In Canada, the exclusive home of the Champions League is DAZN.
