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Man City vs. Fulham prediction, betting tips & odds for Premier League match

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Manchester City face one of their final tests of the season as they visit Craven Cottage to face Fulham on Saturday, looking to hold off Arsenal at the top of the Premier League standings.

A sense of inevitability has followed the defending champions since taking the virtual lead in the title race, sitting a point behind the Gunners in second but holding a game in hand with just three league matches remaining. Pep Guardiola’s side has won six straight in league play, and have not lost since early December.

Should City make it through here, only a pair of struggling sides in Tottenham and West Ham remain between them and a fourth straight Premier League title.

Fulham have given top Premier League sides fits over the course of the season, but they failed to trouble City last time they met at the Etihad in early September, falling 5-1 as Erling Haaland scored a second-half hat-trick.

USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Man City vs Fulham and bet Premier League matches

Manchester City are peaking at just the right time, as they have for multiple seasons in a row now. The end of the campaign is where Pep Guardiola’s squad loves to shine, and they have put aside their March attacking doldrums to finish the year strong.

With apologies to the hopeful Arsenal supporters, this is not the type of match with which Fulham thrive. The Cottagers have been known to trouble top teams at times this season, but Man City’s profile doesn’t fit into their preferred opponent. Fulham have a top goalkeeper in Bernd Leno, who Marco Silva leans on to keep out teams like Liverpool, whose style lends to peppering an opponent with a high volume of low-quality shots. 

Man City, however, are not a high volume side, but rather an efficient one, and that is exactly the kind of club which can break Fulham down. The reverse fixture between these sides is a perfect example — Man City collected five goals, including four from open play, on just seven total shots worth a mammoth 2.26 xG. Fulham can be a pesky opponent, but their weakness is an efficient side with quality finishing, and that’s exactly what Man City are.

Fulham managed to trouble Man City last time they met, with the hold-up play of Raul Jimenez providing a quality outlet for the Whites.

With Jimenez no longer a starter for Fulham, Rodrigo Muniz is a higher-quality version of the same player, and he should do well to provide danger for the hosts. Even as Muniz isn’t a terribly strong aerial presence, Fulham still use the breakout Brazilian to begin counter-attacks, and they have profited on occasion through that avenue.

Man City have let the foot off the gas once they take a strong lead, and it has resulted in late goals against Wolves, Luton, and Crystal Palace in recent matches. The value on both teams to score is minimal at -140, but tacking on the muted over with it brings the total to near even-money, which adds little, if any, risk. This match finishing in a 1-1 draw feels highly unlikely.

Under Marco Silva, Fulham want to bait their opponent into taking a high volume of low-quality shots. The Whites have conceded the 10th most shots of any team in the Premier League, but drilling down further you can see their strategy in action.

They have conceded the sixth-most xG per shot, but the least xGOT per shot on target of any Premier League club, giving them the lowest differential between xGA and xGOTA. What does that tell us? It indicates the Whites feast on fooling the opponent to taking what feel like good chances but turn out to be poor efforts in the end, leaving goalkeeper Bernd Leno with a lot of work to do from a volume perspective, but largely low-quality efforts.

Man City are the side most equipped to resist Fulham’s thrall. Contrary to what the raw numbers indicate, Man City are not a high-volume attack — they end up with a high shot total simply because of their possessional dominance, but they have the most final third passes per shot of any Premier League club by a significant margin.

The last meeting between these clubs was the perfect example of this — Man City scored five goals on just eight total shots. They won’t be tempted to take loads of low-quality efforts in this meeting either, knowing their chances will come if they remain patient.

This Premier League match will be televised in the United States on USA Network, which is available to stream on Fubo, who are offering a FREE trial for new users. The match can also be viewed on the NBC Sports app for those with a valid cable package. Spanish options are available on Universo and Telemundo.

Domestically in the UK, this Premier League match will be televised by TNT Sports 1, with streaming on discovery+. In Canada, the home for every Premier League match is Fubo Canada, where every game of the 2023/24 season can be found.

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