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TSN's best odds, bets and tips for the 2024 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix Jonathan Burnett •

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We’re getting ready for the seventh race of the 2024 Formula One World Championship, as the 20 drivers arrive at the Imola Circuit in Italy for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. 

Max Verstappen may have won four of the opening six races so far this year and has a comfortable lead in the Drivers’ Championship, but he was beaten at last weekend’s Miami Grand Prix by McLaren’s Lando Norris, who won his first ever race on the F1 circuit in the process. 

Norris stormed home to win at the Miami International Autodome, finishing 7.612 seconds ahead of Verstappen with Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc in third. It would have been a good weekend for McLaren all round, particularly given Norris’ team-mate Oscar Piastri recorded the fastest lap of the race. However, following an earlier collision with Carlos Sainz, the Australian had to come from the back of the pack and could only finish 13th. 

Sainz did recover to finish fourth, but the collision with Piastri earned him a five-second penalty, handing the extra two Championship points to Red Bull by gifting Sergio Perez his place on the grid. Lewis Hamilton recovered after a woeful performance in China to claim sixth place, with he and Mercedes teammate George Russell finishing either side of Yuki Tsunoda. 

Coming up next is the first of 10 European races on the calendar in 2024, and the first of two in Italy. The Emilia Romagna Grand Prix doesn’t have the longevity of Monza’s Italian Grand Prix, but is still hosted at an iconic circuit — Imola.

And, ahead of the new season’s seventh meeting in the Emilia Romagna region of Italy, The Sporting News have gone through all the odds offered by our partner bookmakers to come up with the best bets, tips and predictions you’ll need ahead of the next Grand Prix.

Despite Norris’ maiden career victory in Miami last time out, three-time defending world champion Max Verstappen remains the overwhelming favourite to return to form at Imola, where he could win a fifth race from seven so far in 2024. 

However, his odds have widened significantly with the chasing pack going some way towards bridging the gap, too. BetMGM have raised the Dutchman’s moneyline lean from -550 to -400, while Norris has made a massive jump to a +525 moneyline. His odds to win in Miami stood at a huge +1600!

BetMGM has Charles Leclerc slightly further back as the respective moneyline leans pass the +1000 threshold. He’s on +1200, while Perez, Sainz and Piastri stand at +2000, +2200 and +2500 respectively, all three of whom will be looking to build on below-par finishes beneath the podium in Miami. 

There’s then a huge jump to the outsiders further back on BetMGM’s grid of predictions, with Fernando Alonso and Mercedes pair Hamilton and Russell all given +8000 odds to claim victory at Imola. Lance Stroll rounds off the top 10, but at +30000, he and the other 10 drivers are predicted to be well off the pace this weekend. 

Odds via BetMGM (USA), correct as of Thursday, May 16.

MORE: Predictions and best bets for the 2024 Formula One season

Verstappen is, understandably, being tipped to get back to winning ways as soon as he can, and history tells us that there’s a good chance he’ll do so at Imola this weekend. However, at a circuit littered with tight corners and slip streams aplenty, it’s going to be by no means a straight-forward victory for whoever comes out on top. 

As such, BetMGM are offering a moneyline lean of +550 on the winner of this year’s Emilia Romagna Grand Prix to do so by the relatively narrow margin of between 4 and 5.999 seconds (as well as the same odds for the two-second margins either side of that), which fits with the time in which Lewis Hamilton beat Valtteri Bottas in the first edition of this event back in 2020.

Verstappen’s victories in 2021 and 2022 came by much wider margins, but the cancellation due to flooding of last year’s Imola Grand Prix, as well as the odd shaky moment he has shown this year, suggests that the 2024 edition of Emilia Romagna is set to be a much tighter affair. 

It’s rare that a driver records the fastest lap of the race and doesn’t end up somewhere near the podium, let alone outside the top 10 to come away without a single point. Oscar Piastri managed that in Miami though, cutting his way through the rear of the pack during the last Grand Prix and completing lap 43 in just a fraction over 1 minute and 30 seconds. 

He’s at very long odds with DraftKings to claim the fastest lap this weekend at Imola, but having proven to both himself and the other 19 drivers that he’s able to hit speeds as high as anyone, we’re backing the Australian to achieve that accolade once again — hopefully finishing high enough to earn himself some points this time around!

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Speaking of achieving the fastest laps, Charles Leclerc has recorded two of them in the first six races of 2024, but is yet to claim the chequered flag himself or qualify on pole. However, we think that could be all about to change at the home of Ferrari this weekend. 

The Imola Circuit, better known as the Autodromo Internazionale Enzo e Dino Ferrari, could prove to be tailor-made for Leclerc and his rapid Ferrari unit this year, and although winning the race may be too far of a stretch for the Monegasque, we think that DraftKings’s moneyline lean of +550 are good odds. Beating Verstappen to first place on the starting grid is yet to occur this season, but Leclerc on Ferrari’s home circuit is arguably the best-placed driver to do so. 

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