With an 11 point lead atop the La Liga table and five matches left in the league campaign, Real Madrid can officially secure the Spanish top flight title with a home win over Cadiz and some outside help on Saturday.
Holding a “magic number” of five, Los Blancos need victory plus a Barcelona defeat to Girona for mathematical confirmation of the 2023/24 league crown. Yet thanks to their massively superior goal difference, in reality, a win alongside a Barcelona draw would leave them all but secure at the summit.
Knowing the title is all but theirs at this stage, Madrid are fully focused on the Champions League push, having reached the semifinals with a matchup against Bayern Munich. With the second leg against Bayern to come on Wednesday at home, Carlo Ancelotti could ring the changes for his side in this match.
Cadiz are facing relegation this season, and knowing Madrid may make changes and could be focused on other competitions, there is an opportunity to convince themselves a result is possible. The Yellow Submarine sit 18th in the La Liga table, five points behind the final safe club in Celta Vigo. That’s an enormous gap to close so late in the campaign, but a result of any kind against the likely title winners would be a massive boost towards a famous push.
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As tempting as it may be to back a team with everything to play for in the relegation battle against a big club with its attention elsewhere, there’s just nothing to indicate Cadiz can pull off a result in this game. Cadiz were put to the sword by a 3-0 scoreline in the reverse fixture earlier this season, and their only victory against a top-four club this season was a 2-0 win over road-frail Atletico Madrid at home.
Real Madrid have looked extremely beatable in recent weeks, especially against top opposition, but against inferior opponents, they’ve remained steadfast. In fact, Real Madrid last failed to win against a club that finished in the bottom five of the table against this Cadiz side way back in the 2021/22 season, when they drew both matches against The Yellow Submarine, two results which proved utterly vital as they avoided relegation by just a single point.
While we’re backing Real Madrid to come away with a win, there’s plenty to suggest that Cadiz will fight hard to keep themselves in this match. They have been better in league play of late, leading to a rise up the relegation zone, with just three defeats in their last eight games, along with two wins and three draws. They had just two wins and 11 draws in the 25 games before that, including zero wins from matchweeks five through 27.
Cadiz have beaten their opponent on expected goals in four of their last eight league games, and in two others, they were extremely close — those two opponents being Barcelona and Girona. Unfortunately, that’s not a reason to back them to get a result here, as Real Madrid are exceptional at punishing opposition mistakes, and only need one moment to strike even in games they are being battered, but it is a reason to suggest Cadiz can put up a fight.
At 38 years old, Luka Modric is little more than a rotational player for Real Madrid now, but down the stretch of the season with the La Liga title in hand and the Champions League now in the forefront, he will play an important role. Toni Kroos is having a revival campaign, but at 34 years old, he needs significant rest, and with European play now the clear priority, Modric can eat low leverage league minutes to leave Kroos rested for the important games.
While Modric is no longer capable of surviving a full season as a regular starter, Carlo Ancelotti’s rotation has kept the Croatian legend fit enough to where his levels have not dropped when he is deployed. In his last five league starts, Modric has delivered 16 key passes worth a total of 2.42 xA, including an outlandish mid-March performance against Celta Vigo where he somehow emerged without an assist despite eight chances created.
It’s likely that Modric takes the field here opposite an opponent against whom he earned an assist on three key passes earlier this year, feeding Rodrygo to put Real Madrid 2-0 up after halftime before being withdrawn six minutes later.
In the United States, this La Liga match will be televised in Spanish on ESPN Deportes, which can be accessed on Fubo, who are offering a free trial for new users. The match can also be found on ESPN+, where every single match of the Spanish top flight season is accessible under one roof.
In Canada, this game will be televised on TSN3 and accessible to stream on the company’s dedicated platform TSN+. In the UK, this match will be streamed exclusively on LaLigaTV.
