Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are widely expected to be named First Team All-NBA this season. They will face off in what should be an epic second-round series between the 57-win Thunder and 50-win Mavericks.
The Thunder come in as the No. 1 seed, but the gap between these teams is not as big as you might think. The Mavericks remade their team at the trade deadline, picking up starters P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Since that date, both teams tied for a 22-9 record, which was the second-best in the league behind the 25-6 Celtics.
The Thunder may have home-court advantage, but this is as even of a series as a 1-versus-5 matchup can be.
Here’s what you need to know about the series.
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The knock against the Thunder was that they would be too young and too small to compete in the playoffs. They did get manhandled by Jonas Valanciunas in their first-round series against the Pelicans, but that didn’t stop them from taking care of business with a sweep. Their youth also did not appear to be a particular disadvantage.
The Mavericks, meanwhile, slugged it out in a tough series where the Clippers were missing Kawhi Leonard. They don’t have the traditional big like Valanciunas to punish the Thunder, but they do have great offensive rebounders in Gafford and Dereck Lively II. The rebounding battle is going to be key to this series and should be a strong advantage for Dallas.
The Thunder present unique issues because of the screening combinations they use and their constant drives to the rim. They were the No. 3 offense in the league behind that approach. The Mavs have two weak points in their defense with Doncic and Kyrie Irving, although both guarded much better than expected in their first-round series. They will be tested frequently.
Despite some flaws, this Dallas defense isn’t as bad as it’s being made out to be. After initially struggling at the beginning of the year, the Mavericks ranked seventh in the league on that end of the court post-trade deadline. They have very good rim protection with their two centers, and Washington has turned in by far his best defensive stretch at forward since being moved.
The Mavs are much stronger than a typical five seed. This is going to be a terrific series with stellar stars who are going to make big plays. Ultimately, I give the edge to Doncic and Irving over Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams because of that rebounding edge and how well Dallas has played them in the regular season.
Prediction: Mavericks in seven
Odds have not yet been posted for this matchup. Check back soon for series prices from BetMGM.
The Thunder and Mavericks squared off four times, with Oklahoma City taking the series lead 3-1.
In their first matchup, the Thunder choked away a late lead, allowing the Mavericks to go on a 30-0 run in the fourth quarter. OKC eventually held on for a way-too-close win.
The second matchup featured the debuts of Gafford and Washington, who immediately acclimated to playing alongside Doncic. Dallas played at a breakneck pace, outscoring the Thunder 33-2 in fast break points.
The third and fourth matchups weren’t useful for analysis purposes. Doncic missed both games, and the Mavs rested most of their starters in the fourth game with their seeding already locked in. The Thunder won both handily.
After winning the scoring title this season, Doncic continued his dominance in the playoffs against the Clippers. They tried to use different schemes and throw a variety of looks at him. It didn’t really matter. He’s so good at manipulating the defense that no game plan is going to be effective against him.
The Thunder at least have some guys who can do a decent job guarding one-on-one. Lu Dort is coming off a series in which he absolutely tortured Brandon Ingram, helping to hold him to 34.5 percent shooting and 14.3 points per game.
Dort didn’t have that same level of success during the regular season against Doncic, who shot 57.1 percent with Dort as his primary defender, per the NBA’s tracking data. Doncic is going to make even the best lockdown guys look silly at times.
