Barcelona and Napoli both look to save otherwise lost seasons as they meet for 90 massive minutes in Spain on Tuesday, with the aggregate score level after a 1-1 first-leg draw two weeks ago.
Both clubs are mired in the midst of campaigns where the Champions League remains the only viable pathway to silverware, but only one can advance while the other will be forced to finish out the year with little to play for.
Napoli still have a top-four chase on their hands, but defending their Serie A title is completely out of the question as they sit seventh in the standings, a whopping 31 points off the top. Advancing here would give interim boss Francesco Calzona a massive resume boost as he looks to secure the job full-time, having been appointed alongside his duties as Slovakia national team head coach in the wake of Walter Mazzarri’s recent dismissal.
Barcelona, meanwhile, will see head coach Xavi depart at the end of the season as they sit eight points back of La Liga leaders Real Madrid and have already been eliminated from the Copa del Rey. It’s been a difficult season for the Blaugrana from an optics standpoint and have been beset by a host of injuries which feel unrelenting as the matches roll along.
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Despite their lengthy injury list, Barcelona are believed likely to advance thanks to the power of home field advantage, which sees the hosts boast a minus-odds moneyline advantage on a 90-minute victory and stronger than 1/2 odds to advance.
Robert Lewandowski is understandably though the most likely Bacelona player to score, while Napoli’s most likely goal scorer is Victor Osimhem with around 2/1 odds.
Barcelona are favoured heavily in this matchup, but in truth, neither team seems to be in spectacular form, leading the odds disparity as a confusing prospect beyond just one side playing the second leg at home.
Napoli has the most impressive recent result, having topped a strong Juventus side 2-1 at home two weekends ago, but they followed that up with a disappointing 1-1 draw against Torino. Barca, meanwhile, blasted Getafe 4-0 a few weeks back but then played out a pair of grinders in a scoreless draw with Athletic and a nervy 1-0 win over Mallorca.
Given that Barcelona’s midfield is a patchwork mess, and young Pau Cubarsi in defence, it’s reasonable to think Napoli can get a result here at good value which sees the Italian side advance.
* The United States has already transitioned one hour ahead for daylight savings time, but European nations do not do so until March 31, and thus the time difference is currently four hours to the UK and five hours to Europe, instead of the traditional five/six hour difference during this small window.
Barcelona lost Dutch star Frenkie de Jong to a recent ankle injury that will keep him out around a month, leaving the midfield exceedingly thin. Gavi has already been out for months with a torn ACL, and fellow young Spanish star Pedri is out due to a muscle problem. Ferran Torres remains sidelined with a thigh injury, while Raphinha‘s fitness is a concern after being withdrawn in the 37th minute of their recent win over Mallorca with a knock. Defender Inigo Martinez is a doubt, meaning 17-year-old Pau Cubarsi could earn a start in defence, while Marcos Alonso is also questionable with a back problem.
In total juxtaposition to their opponents, Napoli come into this match with a nearly fully fit squad. Only Jens-Lys Cajuste is confirmed out with a hamstring injury, while winter signing Cyril Ngonge is a doubt to participate having missed the last four matches with a muscle problem.
It’s a gift that the under comes in at plus odds for this match between two teams that struggle to score goals but do well to defend. In the last five matches for each club, both have managed to score more than one goal a combined four times out of 10 total games.
Barcelona have kept three straight clean sheets in league play, while Napoli have not conceded more than one goal to an opponent in nearly two months.
While Napoli continue to sputter up front, unable to secure any kind of attacking consistency, the lone reliable forward is Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The Georgian has turned around his sophomore slump in 2024, with four goals in his last three Serie A matches, ripping off eight shots against Torino and scoring his team’s lone goal.
Kvaratskhelia now needs to perform in the Champions League, having registered just one assist and no goals to this point in European matches this season. In the first leg between these two clubs, Kvara was yanked after 68 awful minutes with no shots or chances created, but Francesco Calzona will know that he needs to put more weight on the young playmaker’s shoulders for Napoli to have a chance at advancing.
Thanks to the injury crisis in Barcelona’s midfield, their current lineup will likely slot centre-back Andreas Christensen in at the No. 6 and either Raphinha or Pau Lopez as a No. 8, which is a recipe for disaster. All of those players have an increased likelihood of earning a booking while out of position.
Barcelona saw three yellow cards in the first leg, and with Kvaratskhelia a master at drawing bookings for opponents, the hosts’ chances of earning the ire of experienced official Danny Makkelie is increased. You can get over 3.5 cards for Barcelona at around +290, which feels a strong play as well, but we’ll stick with this lower threshold which still features plus odds.
This match will be shown in English exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States, as CBS Sports leaves the game to be only available on its streaming service. The match will, however, be televised in Spanish on TUDN and Univision, which are both available to stream on Fubo.
In Canada, the sole broadcaster of the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, while in England this match featuring a Premier League club is slated for television on TNT Sports 2.